Find alpha
through event risk.
Untitled measures what prediction-market moves have historically done to crypto and macro books, then prices that against the positions you hold.
01 DETECT
Rank thousands of markets by what actually moved.
Thousands of event markets reprice every day and the overwhelming majority of that motion is noise. Our scanner reads both venues continuously and ranks what moved by how far it travelled, how strange the move looks against its own history and how much real money stood behind the price.
Prices re-quote on every request and the research batch reruns every six hours, so what the terminal shows is what the venues show.
| VENUE | MARKET | ΔPP | NOW |
|---|---|---|---|
| PO | Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-08-12? | −37.5 | 47% |
| PO | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas… | −33.0 | 7% |
| PO | Spread: Ankara Keciorengucu (-1.5) | −27.0 | 20% |
| PO | Will Keith Mitchell lead the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Champi… | −26.5 | 16% |
| PO | GIF Sundsvall to win the second half? | −24.5 | 26% |
| PO | Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections… | +19.4 | 99% |
| PO | Bitcoin Up or Down on August 11? | +17.5 | 57% |
| PO | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 11? | −17.0 | 62% |
| PO | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August? | +15.0 | 85% |
| PO | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to Aug… | +14.0 | 73% |
02 MEASURE
See what each asset did after similar moves.
When a market moves we compare what each asset did next against a normal window at the same hour of day, pooled across every comparable shock. Direction comes out close to a coin flip wherever we look. Size does not.
After a Fed or inflation market repriced by two points or more, Ethereum ran 1.59 times its normal hour and the whole confidence interval cleared the bar, which is what the terminal stamps VALIDATED. Sports and entertainment shocks measure at baseline, and where evidence fails the terminal prints the rejection rather than burying it.
| ASSET | MIDDLE 90% | TYPICAL | NORMAL HOUR | MULTIPLE | VERDICT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | −63.4 to +55.3 | 17.7 bps | 12.5 bps | ×1.41 | CANDIDATE |
| ETH | −79.1 to +54.0 | 26.5 bps | 16.7 bps | ×1.59 | VALIDATED |
| SOL | −82.4 to +61.1 | 24.3 bps | 21.7 bps | ×1.12 | CANDIDATE |
The zone straddles zero at every horizon, so direction stays a coin flip. The multiple is the finding. It says how much more the asset travels than in a normal window at the same hour, and the verdict says whether that elevation survived its confidence interval.
03 STRESS
Price the move against the positions you hold.
A number in basis points means nothing until it lands on real exposure. Type what you hold and the measured response reprices against it immediately, at every horizon we track.
Your weights never leave the browser. Nothing here is stored, transmitted or logged, and the same holds inside the terminal where any account you connect is read-only and arrives already aggregated into bands that cannot be reversed into positions. Untitled reads and never writes, so there is no order path anywhere in the product.
| HORIZON | TYPICAL BOOK MOVE | PER $1M |
|---|---|---|
| 5M | ±4.7 BPS | ±$475 |
| 15M | ±9.5 BPS | ±$947 |
| 1H | ±17.4 BPS | ±$1,735 |
Measured typical sizes scaled across whatever you type. The sign stays open because direction is a coin flip. Nothing leaves this component.
04 PRICE
Value nonlinear books properly.
The same move in the underlying does something very different to an options book than it does to a spot book.
So the terminal prices it properly. Full Greeks including the second-order terms, a value curve with breakevens solved rather than eyeballed, and repricing across spot, volatility and time together.
Solid line is today, dashed is expiry. Premium $4,874 a contract.
One API for every venue.
Two venues today and a roadmap that ends with every book a trader actually keeps, reachable through one client.
# pip install untitled from untitled import Untitled client = Untitled(api_key=KEY) # Highest-attention event right now event = client.events.top() print(event.title, event.delta_pp, "pp") # Or scan the universe with scanner-grade filters for e in client.events.list( category="rates_macro", venue="polymarket", min_move_pp=10, limit=20, ): print(e.utc, e.title, e.attention)
Where the research stands.
The ledger from the last six-hour batch, rejections included. Most relationships fail the bar and the terminal says so, which is what makes the two that passed worth acting on.
- MARKETS WATCHED
- 112
- SHOCKS IN THE LAST DAY
- 48
- RELATIONSHIPS TESTED
- 141
- REJECTED IN PRINT
- 118
- VALIDATED
- 2